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Diam⚾️ndBuzz: February 16, 2025

Alex Bregman's Troubling Trend

Alex Bregman has been a cornerstone for the Houston Astros’ lineup since his breakout season in 2018. Known for his advanced approach at the plate, Bregman has been an offensive force against right-handed pitching (RHP), posting consistently strong numbers year after year. However, in recent seasons, his performance against left-handed pitchers (LHP) has declined sharply, especially over the past three years. As a right-handed batter, Bregman’s struggles against left-handed pitching are even more perplexing, as traditionally, right-handed hitters fare better against left-handed pitchers. This article aims to analyze Bregman’s declining performance against left-handed pitchers, speculate on the reasons behind this trend, and offer potential solutions for a turnaround.

The Data: A Troubling Decline

Against Left-Handed Pitching (LHP)

The stats paint a troubling picture. Over the last three seasons, Bregman’s batting average, on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG) against LHP have all sharply declined. Here's a breakdown of his stats versus LHP from 2022 to 2024:

2024: .224 AVG, .287 OBP, .424 SLG, .712 OPS (70 tOPS+, 98 sOPS+)
2023: .215 AVG, .319 OBP, .376 SLG, .696 OPS (73 tOPS+, 89 sOPS+)
2022: .225 AVG, .345 OBP, .358 SLG, .703 OPS (67 tOPS+, 99 sOPS+)

In comparison to earlier years, these numbers reflect a steep drop. For instance, in 2019 and 2020, Bregman was thriving against left-handed pitching:

2019: .350 AVG, .443 OBP, .742 SLG, 1.186 OPS (130 tOPS+, 203 sOPS+)
2020: .319 AVG, .411 OBP, .575 SLG, .985 OPS (145 tOPS+, 165 sOPS+)

​The significant drop in performance is alarming, particularly considering how right-handed batters like Bregman typically fare better against left-handed pitchers. The question then becomes: why is Bregman struggling?

Speculating on the Causes

1. Mechanical Issues
​Bregman’s struggles could be the result of mechanical issues in his swing. In the past, Bregman has been known for his ability to adjust and refine his swing based on opposing pitchers. However, the prolonged decline in his performance against LHP suggests that something more fundamental might be wrong.

​- Timing and Pitch Recognition: Bregman is known for his ability to recognize pitches early. If his timing against left-handed pitchers has been off, this could explain the reduction in power and consistency. Lefties often present a different angle and movement than right-handers, which could be throwing off his ability to track the ball.

- Swing Mechanics: It’s possible that his swing mechanics are creating issues when facing LHP. Specifically, if his hands aren’t staying in sync, or if his bat path is not as fluid as it is against righties, he could be consistently making weak contact or pulling off pitches too early.

​2. Adjustments by Opposing Pitchers
Pitchers, especially in the modern game, have access to advanced data and scouting reports that allow them to tailor their approach to individual batters. Over time, pitchers facing Bregman may have identified weaknesses against left-handed pitchers and exploited them with pitch patterns that disrupt his timing.

- More Breaking Balls: Left-handed pitchers tend to throw more breaking balls (such as sliders and curveballs) to right-handed batters. If Bregman has been struggling to pick up breaking balls or adjust to their movement, that could explain his lower slugging percentage against LHP. Lefties may be throwing more off-speed pitches, forcing Bregman to be more defensive at the plate.

- Pitch Placement: It’s also possible that left-handed pitchers are exploiting holes in his swing with well-placed fastballs or changeups that are tough for Bregman to square up. If his swing is late or doesn’t have the right bat speed, Bregman could be forced to swing at pitches he otherwise wouldn’t, leading to weaker contact and more strikeouts.

3. Health or Injury Concerns
Though Bregman has generally been healthy over the past few seasons, nagging injuries or discomforts could be a contributing factor to his struggles against left-handed pitching. If his body is not 100%, this could affect his swing mechanics, timing, or his ability to generate power. Injuries can lead to compensations in the swing, which might not show up immediately but can accumulate over time.

4. Confidence and Mental Approach
While less tangible, Bregman’s mental approach to facing left-handed pitchers might also play a role. Confidence is key for any hitter, and if Bregman has faced a few tough stretches or misfortunes against LHP, it could affect his overall mindset when facing them. A small slump against lefties might snowball if he starts to press, causing him to overthink his approach and swing at pitches out of the zone.

What Does Bregman Need to Do to Reverse the Trend?

1. Refining His Swing Mechanics
Bregman should focus on refining his swing mechanics against left-handed pitchers. Specifically, he should ensure that his hands stay inside the ball, his hips rotate fully, and his timing is more consistent. One potential area of focus could be ensuring his swing path is less steep, which would allow him to make better contact with off-speed pitches like sliders and curveballs.

2. Adjusting His Mental Approach
Bregman could benefit from adjusting his mental approach. Rather than trying to overpower left-handed pitchers, he should focus on staying within himself and making solid contact. His approach should involve being more selective with his pitches, especially on breaking balls, and not trying to pull everything. Working with a mental coach or discussing his approach with hitting coach Alex Cintrón could provide insights into better approaching LHP.

3. Improving Pitch Recognition
Bregman should continue to refine his pitch recognition skills. If pitchers are throwing more breaking balls and off-speed pitches, Bregman needs to be able to pick them up earlier to avoid chasing pitches out of the zone. Improving his pitch recognition against LHP would allow him to better lay off bad pitches and wait for a more hittable offering.

Examples of Right-Handed Hitters Who Excel Against Lefties

To give Bregman a sense of what is possible, it’s worth looking at some of the best right-handed hitters in the game today who excel against left-handed pitching:

Jose Ramirez: A prime example of a right-handed hitter excelling against left-handed pitchers is José Ramírez of the Cleveland Guardians. Over the past several years, Ramirez has posted an OPS above .900 against left-handed pitchers. His ability to stay balanced at the plate, combined with his quick hands and ability to recognize breaking balls, allows him to thrive against LHP. Ramirez’s approach is one that Bregman could certainly look to replicate.

Giancarlo Stanton: A prime example of a right-handed hitter excelling against left-handed pitchers is Giancarlo Stanton of the New York Yankees. Stanton, known for his power, is consistently among the best in the league when it comes to hitting left-handed pitching. His combination of bat speed and ability to adjust to off-speed stuff allows him to hit for both average and power against LHP. Stanton’s ability to drive the ball to all fields and avoid chasing breaking balls has kept him productive against left-handed pitchers throughout his career.

Aaron Judge: Judge, like Stanton, is a powerful right-handed hitter who excels against left-handed pitchers. In fact, his numbers against LHP have been elite, with a career .290+ batting average and .550 slugging percentage against them. Judge's ability to recognize breaking balls and stay back on off-speed pitches has been key to his success. His approach focuses on driving the ball to all fields, and when he stays disciplined, he punishes left-handed pitchers.

Mookie Betts: Betts, who is known for his all-around offensive game, consistently posts strong numbers against left-handed pitchers. His ability to hit for both power and average against LHP makes him a rare commodity, and his balance at the plate serves as a perfect example for Bregman. Betts’ approach, which focuses on pitch recognition and using the whole field, has allowed him to maintain elite numbers against LHP.

These hitters excel against left-handed pitchers due to a combination of advanced pitch recognition, smooth swing mechanics, and a mental approach that allows them to stay patient and pick their spots. Bregman can learn from their success by adopting similar techniques and focusing on his weaknesses.

How This Affects His Contract Status

Bregman’s struggles against left-handed pitching may have significant implications for his contract status, especially with the 2024 offseason looming. Teams looking for long-term solutions at third base or in the middle of their lineup will take a close look at his performance against lefties. A prolonged decline could impact his value, especially in a market that increasingly values versatility and consistency against all types of pitching.

​For a player like Bregman, who was expected to command a large and lucrative deal, his performance against LHP over the past few years could have lowered his potential earning power. Teams might be hesitant to offer him the long-term deal he desires unless he shows improvement in this area. With a focus on analytics, front offices may view Bregman’s struggles against lefties as a significant red flag in an otherwise productive career.

Where Should Alex Cora Bat Bregman in 2025?

Manager Alex Cora will have to make adjustments in the batting order to get the most out of Bregman in 2025. When facing right-handed pitchers, Bregman’s solid numbers suggest he should remain in the middle of the order, ideally hitting 2nd or 3rd, where he can capitalize on his ability to get on base and provide protection for players like Rafael Devers.

​However, when facing left-handed pitchers, Cora may want to drop Bregman in the order. Batting him 5th or 6th could be a more appropriate spot in these matchups, where his less-than-ideal performance against lefties won’t have as much of an impact. Alternatively, Cora could consider platooning Bregman more frequently, giving him rest against lefties while utilizing other left-handed hitters like Triston Casas or Adam Duvall.

Alex Bregman’s decline in performance against left-handed pitching is a concerning trend that could affect his long-term success and contract value. While there are several potential reasons for this struggle, including mechanical issues, opposing pitchers’ adjustments, and health concerns, Bregman has the talent and work ethic to reverse this trend. By refining his swing mechanics, adjusting his mental approach, and learning from the successes of other right-handed hitters like José Ramírez, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Mookie Betts, Bregman can regain his form against LHP. If he can address these issues, he will continue to be a key contributor for the Boston Red Sox in 2025 and beyond.

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