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Diam⚾️ndBUZZ: OCTOBER 21, 2024

Battle for the 2024 Cy Young

Every baseball season brings its fair share of breathtaking performances, but there is something about the Cy Young race that elevates the tension, the passion, and the spectacle. The award itself, named after one of the most storied pitchers in baseball history, honors only the most dominant hurlers. This season, the Cy Young race for both the American League and National League has been nothing short of thrilling. As we head into the final weeks, it's becoming clearer who the frontrunners are, but this journey has been one of surprises and standout performances that will leave fans talking for years to come.

In the National League, Chris Sale is leading the pack with a rejuvenation that many thought was out of reach after a string of injuries had hampered his last few seasons. Yet, here he stands, not only in the conversation but sitting atop the heap. Behind him, young sensation Paul Skenes and the consistent Zack Wheeler are making their cases, but it's Sale's season to lose. Over in the American League, things are much murkier. The race is wide open between three electrifying pitchers: Emmanuel Clase, Kirby Yates, and Tarik Skubal. Each has their own unique strengths, but one thing is clear: this Cy Young chase is up for grabs. Let's take a deeper look at what makes each of these players so special and deserving of this prestigious honor.

National League: Chris Sale’s Story of Redemption

If you were to tell fans a year ago that Chris Sale would be leading the National League Cy Young race, many would have raised an eyebrow. The left-hander had been battling injuries and inconsistency for years, leading many to wonder if his days of dominance were behind him. But in 2024, Sale has silenced those doubts. He’s pitched like a man on a mission, showing the velocity, command, and sheer determination that made him one of the most feared pitchers in baseball during his prime.

What has made Sale’s resurgence so remarkable is his ability to adapt. Gone are the days of relying solely on overpowering stuff. This version of Sale is cerebral, using every inch of the strike zone and mixing his pitches masterfully. He’s been attacking hitters with his devastating slider and pinpoint fastball location, making it nearly impossible for batters to make solid contact. Sale’s 2.45 ERA and 0.97 WHIP speak volumes about his ability to keep runners off base, and his 210 strikeouts in just 175 innings show that he still has the swing-and-miss stuff that once defined him.

But Sale isn’t alone in this race. Paul Skenes, the young phenom, has been nothing short of extraordinary. Skenes’ rise has been meteoric, and at just 23 years old, he’s shown poise beyond his years. With a 2.58 ERA and a fastball consistently hitting triple digits, Skenes has quickly become a household name. His ability to overpower hitters and work out of tight situations has earned him a spot among the top contenders. If it weren’t for Sale’s resurgence, Skenes would likely be the runaway favorite.

Then there’s Zack Wheeler, the ever-reliable ace for the Phillies. Wheeler’s consistency is what sets him apart. He’s logged the most innings of any pitcher in the National League, providing his team with invaluable durability. With a 2.75 ERA and 190 strikeouts, Wheeler has once again proven why he’s one of the most dependable arms in the game. His strike-throwing ability and knack for inducing weak contact make him a threat every time he toes the rubber.

​Yet, despite the strong showings from Skenes and Wheeler, it’s hard to look past Chris Sale. His return to form has been one of the most captivating stories of the season. If Sale continues to pitch at this level, he seems destined to hoist the Cy Young at season’s end, completing a comeback for the ages.

American League: A Battle Between Power and Precision

The American League Cy Young race is where things get truly interesting. Unlike the National League, where Sale has emerged as the clear favorite, the AL race is still very much wide open. Leading the charge is Emmanuel Clase, the lights-out closer for the Cleveland Guardians. But this isn’t a typical year for closers. Clase has been used in a unique way, often pitching multiple innings in high-leverage situations, making him more of a hybrid reliever-starter. His ability to dominate late in games has earned him a 1.65 ERA and an astonishing 48 saves on the season.

What makes Clase so special is his velocity and command. His cutter, which routinely sits in the high 90s, is nearly unhittable. Batters simply can’t square it up, and when Clase is on the mound, the game feels over before it’s even finished. He’s one of the rare pitchers who can single-handedly shut down an entire offense in the blink of an eye. If Clase were to win the Cy Young, he would join an elite group of relievers to claim the award, proving that in today’s game, a dominant closer can be just as valuable as a starting pitcher.

But Clase isn’t without competition. Kirby Yates, the veteran closer for the Rangers, has had a career year. Yates has transformed into one of the most reliable relievers in baseball, boasting a 1.89 ERA and 38 saves. His splitter has been the key to his success, baffling hitters with its late drop. Yates has saved games in the most pressure-filled moments, and his ability to handle the toughest lineups in the American League makes him a serious contender for the Cy Young.

Rounding out the AL race is Tarik Skubal, the ace of the Detroit Tigers. Skubal’s numbers might not be as eye-popping as his competition, but his consistency over the season has been remarkable. He’s logged over 200 innings with a 2.80 ERA and 220 strikeouts, making him one of the most reliable starters in the league. Skubal’s fastball-changeup combination has kept hitters off-balance all year, and his ability to go deep into games has been invaluable for the Tigers.

So who will emerge victorious? Based on pure dominance, Emmanuel Clase seems to have the edge. His ability to close out games in dramatic fashion, combined with his versatility and sheer dominance in late-inning situations, gives him the slight nod. Yet, in a race this tight, one strong final stretch from Yates or Skubal could tip the scales. Regardless of the outcome, this year’s American League Cy Young race is one for the ages.

Final Predictions: Sale and Clase Poised for Glory

The Cy Young Award, like the MVP, is voted on by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). Each writer ranks their top five candidates for the award, with a points system assigning 7 points for a first-place vote, 4 for second, and so on down to 1 point for a fifth-place vote. This year, in both leagues, there are clear frontrunners, but as with any close race, the voting can be unpredictable.

As we approach the final stretch of the season, it’s becoming clearer who the frontrunners are. Chris Sale and Emmanuel Clase seem destined to walk away with the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues. Sale’s return to form has been nothing short of remarkable, while Clase’s ability to dominate the most critical moments of a game gives him the edge over his competitors.

But baseball, as we know, is unpredictable. A late surge by Paul Skenes or Tarik Skubal could change the narrative. For now, though, Sale and Clase stand as the leaders of the pack, ready to etch their names into baseball history alongside the great Cy Young, the man whose legacy lives on through this prestigious award. The story of the 2024 Cy Young race is far from over, but if current trends continue, these two pitchers will be hoisting the hardware at season’s end.

In the National League, Chris Sale has emerged as the leading candidate. His resurgence this season has been remarkable, and he’s expected to garner a significant portion of the first-place votes. Sale is likely to capture 70-75% of the first-place votes, as his combination of dominance and comeback story has captivated both fans and writers alike. His 2.45 ERA, combined with over 210 strikeouts, makes a strong case for him being the clear-cut winner. However, Paul Skenes, the young phenom, is expected to pull in 15-20% of the first-place votes, as his electric fastball and poise on the mound have made him a standout. Zack Wheeler, ever reliable, will likely pick up the remaining 5-10% of the votes, due to his impressive consistency and ability to anchor the Phillies’ rotation.

Over in the American League, things are far more uncertain. Emmanuel Clase, who has been nothing short of brilliant in high-leverage situations, is expected to receive the bulk of the first-place votes. His estimated share is around 55-60%, as voters will be swayed by his dominance in closing out games with a 1.65 ERA and 48 saves. However, there’s still competition. Kirby Yates has had a career year as well, and while he may not lead the pack, he’s expected to pull in around 25-30% of the first-place votes. Tarik Skubal, though not as flashy, is estimated to receive 10-15%, given his ability to eat innings and maintain a low ERA while being the cornerstone of the Tigers' rotation.

While the Cy Young race in the National League seems more certain, the American League could go in several directions. Sale and Clase are the leaders of their respective leagues, but with the final stretch of the season upon us, surprises could still be in store. Based on current statistics and performances, Sale and Clase are expected to walk away with the prestigious honor, but as we've seen in past years, anything can happen when the votes are cast.

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