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Diam⚾️ndBUZZ: OCTOBER 11, 2024

Hot Playoff Trends Since 2020

Since 2020, the Major League Baseball postseason has been a wild ride of tactical evolution. Teams have taken their strategies, fine-tuned them, and, in some cases, revolutionized the way the game is played. From hitting trends to roster construction, each element plays its role in determining whether a team will be playing in October or packing it up after 162 games. Let's take a trip around the diamond and dive into the good, the bad, and everything in between about recent playoff trends.

Hitting: The Rise of Power and Patience
Postseason success at the plate has increasingly been defined by two things: power and patience. Since 2020, we’ve seen an upward trend in teams focusing on home runs and walks to generate offense in the playoffs. The long ball has always been a postseason weapon, but recently, its prominence has reached new heights.

For example, the 2021 Atlanta Braves, champions of that year’s World Series, hit an astonishing 45 home runs during their playoff run, capitalizing on key moments. They knew that stringing together hits off top-tier pitching was difficult, so they leaned on their power to create instant offense. In fact, nearly 60% of their postseason runs came via the home run ball.

Yet, it’s not just about power. Patience at the plate has also become crucial. The ability to work the count and get on base has helped teams neutralize dominant pitching. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers have been particularly effective at this, leading the league in on-base percentage (OBP) during playoff runs in 2020 and 2021. In the 2020 postseason, the Dodgers posted an impressive .338 OBP, wearing down pitchers with extended at-bats and forcing them into mistakes.

Pitching: Shorter Leashes and the Emergence of "Bullpen Games"
Now let’s talk about the guys on the mound. Since 2020, pitching strategies in the playoffs have shifted dramatically. Gone are the days when a starter would be expected to give you seven or eight innings in every game. Teams are embracing shorter leashes for starting pitchers and relying heavily on the bullpen.

Take, for instance, the 2022 Houston Astros, a team that featured a dominant bullpen. The Astros’ relievers posted an ERA of 2.12 during the postseason and carried the team through tough matchups. In this era, it’s no longer uncommon to see starting pitchers pulled in the fourth or fifth inning if there’s even a hint of trouble, giving way to a parade of relievers throwing 100 mph heat.

One of the most talked-about pitching trends since 2020 has been the rise of bullpen games—games where a team doesn’t even bother with a traditional starter. The Tampa Bay Rays, known for their innovative strategies, used this tactic effectively. During the 2020 postseason, they pieced together wins with pitchers throwing an inning or two each. It worked well enough to carry them to the World Series, where they ultimately fell short to the Dodgers.

Pitchers, especially those in the bullpen, are throwing harder than ever. In fact, from 2020 to 2023, the average velocity for fastballs in the playoffs has jumped from 94 mph to 96 mph. That’s a significant change in just a few years and has led to a premium being placed on relievers who can come in and throw gas.

Fielding: Versatility and Shifts Dominate
Defense has always been a key part of playoff baseball, but since 2020, we’ve seen an emphasis on versatility and defensive shifts. More than ever, teams are loading their rosters with players who can handle multiple positions, allowing for flexibility in the lineup and better matchups late in games.

The 2020 Dodgers were a great example of this. They had players like Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández, and Max Muncy, who could move around the diamond as needed. That versatility gave manager Dave Roberts more options when it came to defensive matchups and pinch-hitting opportunities.

The use of defensive shifts has also skyrocketed in recent years. Teams are more data-driven than ever, and that data has shown them where hitters are likely to place the ball. In the 2021 postseason, the San Francisco Giants shifted on nearly 60% of plate appearances, one of the highest rates in baseball. Shifts aren’t without controversy, but there’s no denying their impact on suppressing offense.

Roster Construction: Depth and Youth Over Veterans
Playoff rosters have undergone a transformation. Since 2020, teams have put a premium on depth and youth over veteran presence. The days of relying on an aging star to carry you through October are fading. Instead, teams are building balanced rosters with contributions from all levels of their roster.

The 2023 Texas Rangers exemplified this trend. They leaned on a mix of veteran leadership and young talent like Josh Jung and Evan Carter, blending the two to form a deep, dangerous roster. Their approach allowed them to withstand injuries and fatigue, keeping them competitive deep into October.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and the Houston Astros have also embraced the youth movement. The Astros consistently bring up young players who can perform at a high level, allowing them to reload without missing a beat. Their ability to develop talent in-house, from Kyle Tucker to Framber Valdez, has been a major factor in their postseason success.

Teams That Excelled in September
One undeniable trend since 2020 has been the correlation between strong September performances and World Series success. Teams that play at least four games over .500 in September have a much higher chance of carrying that momentum into October and winning it all.

For example, the 2020 Los Angeles Dodgers finished September with a 20-8 record, setting themselves up for a dominant playoff run that ended with a World Series championship. Similarly, the 2021 Braves went 18-9 in September, building momentum that carried them all the way to a title.

This trend highlights the importance of peaking at the right time. Teams like the 2022 Houston Astros, who went 18-6 in September, also benefited from a hot finish, leading to a strong postseason and, ultimately, a World Series victory. On the flip side, teams that limp into October often find themselves exiting the playoffs quickly, as the postseason is all about momentum.

Managers and players alike recognize that a strong finish to the regular season sets the tone for playoff success. September has become a proving ground, and teams that thrive during that month are the ones hoisting the trophy at the end of October.

Strategy: Analytics Take Center Stage
Perhaps no trend has defined recent playoff success more than the rise of analytics. Since 2020, the use of advanced data has permeated every aspect of the game, from lineup construction to in-game decision-making. Managers are now making moves based on data rather than gut feelings.

Pitching changes, for instance, are often dictated by the numbers. We saw this clearly in the 2020 World Series when Rays manager Kevin Cash controversially pulled Blake Snell early in Game 6, a move based on analytics that backfired. While not every decision pans out, teams are leaning into the numbers more than ever before.

Similarly, base running strategies have evolved. Teams are more calculated in their approach to stealing bases, with a greater emphasis on high-percentage plays. The success rate of stolen bases in the postseason has risen, hitting 80% in 2023, compared to 75% in 2020.

Impact of Rule Changes
The rule changes in recent years have also impacted postseason trends. The implementation of the pitch clock, introduced in 2023, has sped up games and forced pitchers to work faster, which has slightly decreased strikeout rates and put more emphasis on defense. Additionally, the three-batter minimum rule for relievers, introduced in 2020, has changed the way managers handle their bullpens, requiring more thought in matchups.

The game of baseball is constantly evolving, and the playoffs are where those changes come into focus. Since 2020, we’ve seen shifts in how teams approach hitting, pitching, fielding, and even roster construction. Some teams, like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros, have figured out how to adapt to these new realities, and they’ve reaped the rewards. As we move forward, it will be fascinating to see how these trends continue to evolve and shape the future of the sport we all love.

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