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Diam⚾️ndBUZZ: September 17, 2024

Juan Soto's Meteoric Rise:
Trades, Talent, and the Next Big Contract

Since debuting in Major League Baseball in 2018 with the Washington Nationals, Juan Soto has taken the league by storm. His exceptional ability to hit for both average and power, combined with his advanced plate discipline, has made him one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Soto’s rise to prominence was swift—he helped the Nationals win the 2019 World Series at just 21 years old, cementing himself as one of the game’s brightest young stars.

Soto's path has been marked by high expectations and equally dramatic trades. After putting up elite numbers with the Nationals, including a .282 career average with 119 home runs in just five seasons, the Nationals traded Soto in a blockbuster deal to the San Diego Padres in 2022. Despite his undeniable talent, Washington’s decision to part ways with Soto stemmed from the team entering a rebuilding phase, prioritizing prospects and financial flexibility over committing long-term to one player.

​In San Diego, Soto continued to perform at a high level, but the Padres were faced with the daunting prospect of his future free agency. Amid rising payrolls and the desire for more roster flexibility, the Padres, too, opted to trade Soto, this time to the New York Yankees in 2024, one of baseball’s biggest markets.

Why So Many Trades?
While it’s unusual for a generational talent like Soto to be traded multiple times before the age of 26, several factors contributed. First, Soto’s contract situation has played a major role. With Soto still under team control but approaching free agency, teams have been reluctant to offer the mammoth contract that Soto is expected to demand. His status as a potential free agent in 2025 means that acquiring him comes with the risk of losing him after just one season.

Nationals' Return for Juan Soto Trade
In 2022, the Washington Nationals traded Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the San Diego Padres in exchange for a massive haul of prospects and young talent. The Nationals received CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana, and Luke Voit. Abrams has become a staple in the Nationals’ infield, showing flashes of his potential as a shortstop. Gore, a left-handed pitcher, has had mixed results but shows promise as part of the Nationals’ future rotation. The prospects—particularly Hassell and Wood—are highly regarded but are still developing in the minors.

Padres' Return for Trading Soto to Yankees
In 2024, the Padres traded Soto to the New York Yankees as part of a rebuilding effort. In return, San Diego received a mix of Major League-ready talent and high-level prospects, including Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Spencer Jones. Pereira and Wells have shown immediate potential in the Padres lineup, with Pereira contributing as an outfielder and Wells as a catcher. Jones, a power-hitting prospect, is expected to rise quickly through the Padres' farm system and provide an impact at the big-league level in the near future.

Which Teams Are in the Hunt for Soto Long-Term?
Several teams will likely pursue Soto aggressively if he hits free agency after 2025:

  • New York Yankees: The Yankees, having traded for Soto, are expected to make a strong push to retain him with a long-term contract.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Always major players in the free-agent market, the Dodgers have the payroll flexibility and prestige to entice Soto.
  • San Francisco Giants: After missing out on big free agents in recent years, the Giants are rumored to be interested in making a huge splash with a player of Soto’s caliber.
  • Philadelphia Phillies: With a growing core of superstars, the Phillies may look to add Soto to their already strong lineup, especially with Bryce Harper pushing for a reunion with his former teammate.

Soto's projected contract size looms large. His next contract is expected to rival or even surpass some of the largest in MLB history, potentially in the range of $450 to $500 million over 10-12 years. This financial commitment has made it difficult for smaller market teams to lock him in, whereas the Yankees have both the financial power and willingness to keep him in pinstripes for the long term.

Comparing Soto to Hall of Fame Legends
Soto's early career success has drawn comparisons to several Hall of Fame players. His combination of plate discipline and power has earned him comparisons to Ted Williams, who also demonstrated an advanced hitting approach at a young age. Like Williams, Soto has an uncanny ability to control the strike zone, drawing a high number of walks while still maintaining significant power.

Another comparison is Mickey Mantle, due to Soto’s ability to hit the long ball and his maturity beyond his years. Although Mantle was more of a speed-power threat in his early years, Soto’s ability to handle pressure and perform on the biggest stages (like the 2019 World Series) mirrors Mantle’s clutch performances for the Yankees in the postseason.

What Makes Soto Special?
Juan Soto's most defining skill is his extraordinary plate discipline. His career OBP of over .400 showcases his ability to draw walks and avoid chasing bad pitches. Soto’s keen batting eye allows him to force pitchers into mistakes, which he capitalizes on with his smooth, powerful swing. His power to all fields makes him one of the most difficult hitters to game plan against.

​Soto’s maturity at such a young age, both in handling the spotlight and performing under pressure, has set him apart from his peers. His focus and consistent production have made him one of the most coveted talents in MLB, and whether the Yankees can retain him long-term remains one of the biggest storylines heading into the 2025 offseason.

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